Trump administration’s positives might outweigh its negatives, say global tech analysts

The expected negative impact of Donald Trump’s second presidency in the United States on India’s tech sector is likely to get counter-balanced by the positives, opine global tech analysts.

However, they cautioned that if the Trump administration decides to introduce tariffs on services this would have a chilling effect, especially if it is followed up with stringent visa restrictions.

Peter Bendor-Samuel, Chief Executive Officer at Dallas-based Everest Group told The Hindu, ‘‘Fewer H-1B and L1 visas will likely impact margins of Indian tech firms as it will incrementally raise cost for onshore labour. It will also make it harder for Indian firms to hire and retain top talent in the U.S.’‘

If the much heralded Trump bump (a sudden rise in stock market) accelerated the U.S economy, the Indian tech providers would also do well, the Everest Group further said.

According to Phil Fersht, CEO and Chief Analyst at London-based HFS Research, the heavy tech billionaire influence on the Trump administration and focus on lower taxes should have positive consequences for the Indian IT economy.

“This is especially true when you see how dependent the tech juggernauts such as Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow are on Indian talent to support their implementations and development,’‘ he pointed out. ‘‘With the potential of full employment situation in the U.S and expected economic stimulation from tax cuts in 2025, I anticipate a good year ahead for Indian IT with U.S. corporate customers,” Mr. Fersht added.

However, he said there were potential economic headwinds that could derail the global economy, especially the political instability in both France and Germany.

R. Ray Wang, principal analyst and founder, San Francisco-based Constellation Research, Inc observed that senior tech immigrants from India to the U.S. were returning to India enmasse to take up jobs at captives, startups, and also with the government. 

In many cases, Mr. Wang said, a 50 year old Non-Resident Indians who left for an overseas opportunity, got their first job, bought a house, got married, had kids, paid off their house mortguage, and are now traveling back to India every quarter to care for their parents. Mr. Wang said such NRI’s would not turn down an offer to make U.S. salaries in India for three to five years and spend time with their parents as they age.

The U.S would need more talent but demographics were driving this repatriation of Indian talent, he noted.

‘’Overall Trump policies will bring more peace and stability to the world economies and a strong U.S. market bodes well for India as well, as there needs to be a strong counter to China,’‘ added Mr. Wang.